分形分析方法在海冰趋势预测中的应用

根据渤海北部1966——2001海冰冰级年际变化的实际资料，利用R／S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数，建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式，对渤海北部海冰趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明，利用分形分析方法进行海冰趋势预测不仅方法简便，而且结论具有客观性，可以将其作为海冰趋势预测中较为有效的一种方法。     

东中国海环流及其季节变化的数值模拟

关于东中国海环流的研究，国内外学者已做了大量的工作。早期科学家们主要依赖于对温盐资料和少数测流资料的分析研究对渤、黄、东海的环流结构有了较系统和深入的认识。东中国海环流是由一个气旋式的“流涡”组成，东侧主要是北上的黑潮-对马暖流-黄海暖流及其延伸部分；西侧为南下的沿岸流系。黑潮对东中国海环流的影响是如此之大，以致于除了某些局部区域外，上述海域主要流系的冬、夏季分布形式比较相似而无本质上的差异(胡敦欣等，1993)。但本文所研究海域正处于世界上最显著的季风区，冬、夏季盛行风向基本相反，过渡季节(春、秋季)风向多变，风力减弱；海洋热盐结构季节变化明显(如冬季混合强，而夏季层化明显等)，这些因素都使得东中国海环流存在着较明显的季节变化。 自20世纪80年代以来，东中国海环流的数值模拟工作逐步展开，并已成为研究环流结构及其形成机制的强有力工具。但由于数值模式本身以及计算方案的缺陷(如有些学者用固定的风场、温盐场对东中国海环流进行诊断模拟等)和观测资料的不足，数值模拟的结果难以得到验证，渤、黄、东海的环流研究中仍有大量的问题存在争议，以待澄清。例如，台湾暖流的来源、流径;对马暖流的来源;夏季黄海暖流的流径以及黄海冷水团环流等均有不同的论述。对黄、东海环流季节变化的数值模拟工作也较少，多用冬、夏典型月份的风场强迫积分至稳定态，给出冬、夏季环流，这种做法值得商榷。三维环流模式很难在1个月内达到稳定态，尤其是夏季层化明显、风力减弱的情况下，非常定风场的影响更应引起人们的重视。 本文采用比较符合实际的计算方案，用年循环风场和海面热通量场为外强迫，对渤、黄、东海的环流及其季节变化进行了模拟，并对一些争议问题进行了探讨。     

港口靠船桩工作性状计算的双参数法

港口靠船桩是承受重复性荷载或多循环荷载的一种横向承载桩。双参数法能较好地描述靠船桩 (单桩、群桩 )的桩土工作性状。用双参数法进行计算时 ,所给的地面条件必须由重复荷载或多循环荷载作用下实测出来。根据现场试桩资料 ,标定桩土参数 ,即k =mx1/n的指数l/n、桩土相对柔度系数α、桩土综合刚度EI等值 ,可以用来设计试桩附近局部地区同类条件下的其它长桩。对于没有进行试桩的某些工程 ,可以联合运用双参数法和p -y曲线法进行桩的分析     

引入差比关系法分析西北太平洋TOPEX/POSEIDON卫星高度计测高数据

TOPEX/POSEIDON(T/P)卫星高度计数据信息中存在周期成分混淆问题.对其中的一类混淆引入差比关系方法对混淆的分潮进行分离.卫星轨道交叉点资料包括升轨和降轨资料,资料量比沿轨点资料多1倍,经分析发现:在已有为期6a多的观测资料时间序列中,在沿轨处混淆的分潮如K₁和SSA在交叉点处不再混淆,可以直接分离.因此首先对交叉点资料进行调和分析.然后由交叉点的分析结果得到分潮间的差比关系,处理到相近的沿轨点处,从而得到沿轨点的调和常数.用引入差比关系方法,对西北太平洋海区6a多的T/P卫星高度计资料进行了潮汐分析,并与沿岸及岛屿验潮站资料进行了比较,所得结果较满意.     

The Formation and Circulation of the Intermediate Water in the Japan Sea

In order to clarify the formation and circulation of the Japan/East Sea Intermediate Water (JESIW) and the Upper portion of the Japan Sea Proper Water (UJSPW), numerical experiments have been carried out using a 3-D ocean circulation model. The UJSPW is formed in the region southeast off Vladivostok between 41°N and 42°N west of 136°E. Taking the coastal orography near Vladivostok into account, the formation of the UJSPW results from the deep water convection in winter which is generated by the orchestration of fresh water supplied from the Amur River and saline water from the Tsushima Warm Current under very cold conditions. The UJSPW formed is advected by the current at depth near the bottom of the convection and penetrates into the layer below the JESIW. The origin of the JESIW is the low salinity coastal water along the Russian coast originated by the fresh water from the Amur River. The coastal low salinity water is advected by the current system in the northwestern Japan Sea and penetrates into the subsurface below the Tsushima Warm Current region forming a subsurface salinity minimum layer. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sea surface height anomaly and geostrophic circulation variations in the South China Sea from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

The sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and geostrophic circulation in the South ChinaSea (SCS) are studied using TOPEX/POSE1DON (T/P) altimetry data. The SSHA, which is obtained after tidal correction based on the tidal results from T/P data, is predominated by seasonal alternating monsoons. The results reveal that the SSHA in the central part of the SCS is positive in spring and summer, but negative in autumn and winter. It is also found that the SSHA in the SCS can be approached with the sum of tidal constituents SA and SSA. The geostrophic circulations in the SCS are calculated according to sea surface dynamic topography, which is the sum of SSHA and mean sea surface height. It is suggested that the circulation in the upper layer of the SCS is generally cyclonic and notably western intensified during autumn and winter, while the western intensification is weak during spring and summer. It is also indicated that the Kuroshio intrudes into the northeastern SCS throuth the Luzon Strait in winter. But ther     

南海上层环流观测研究进展

回顾了近50a来南海环流研究的进展，重点介绍了近期有关南海上层总环流的观测研究成果，并就南海季风急流、南海暖流、南海南部的次海盆尺度环流，以及南海东北部环流的几个问题进行了专门讨论。     

The CANALES experiment (1996-1998). Interannual, seasonal, and mesoscale variability of the circulation in the Balearic Channels

Repeated hydrographic casts, mooring time series and satellite sea surface temperature collected during the CANALES experiment (1996–98) are used to describe the thermohaline circulation in the Balearic Channels (western Mediterranean) and to analyze its variability. Mass transports are estimated by inverse calculations. The role played by each channel in the meridional water exchange is clarified: the Ibiza Channel funnels southward cool, saline, northern waters whereas the Mallorca Channel appears as the preferred route for the northward progression of warm, fresh, southern waters. A neat interannual trend is revealed by the continuous decrease of the amount of Western Mediterranean Intermediate Waters (WIW) brought by the Northern Current, reflecting the increase in temperature of the winter mixed layer in the northern Mediterranean that occurred each year between 1996 and 1998. A clear seasonal signal was also seen in the transport of the Northern Current which decreased from 1 to 1.4 Sv in winter to < 0.5 Sv in summer. The current intensified again in fall. A number of mesoscale eddies, from 20 to 70 km in size, most of them anticyclonic vortex eddies were brought by the unstable Northern Current, these eddies strongly perturbed the water exchange in the Ibiza Channel forcing retroflections of northern waters back to the north-east into the Balearic Current. These eddies either stayed stalled for several months in the Gulf of Valencia to the north of the channel, or were slowly funnelled southward through the channel narrows. A decreasing trend was observed in the mesoscale activity of the Northern Current between 1996 and 1998. Conversely, large, anticyclonic eddies, 150-km diameter, progressively invaded the Algerian Basin to the south of the channels in 1997–98 and forcing northward inflows (up to 0.75 Sv) of fresh and warm waters of Atlantic origin (AW) into the Mallorca Channel. The marked interannual differences observed in both northern and southern eddy activity may be linked to the interannual variability of the large scale thermohaline circulation.     

深水钻井中浅水流灾害问题及其地球物理识别技术

在深水钻井中,浅水流是一种常见的地质灾害。中国正在进行深水油气勘探,十分有必要开展这方面的地质灾害研究。介绍了浅水流的形成机制及地球物理特性。目前用于识别和预测浅水流的手段有测井和反射地震两大类方法。主要介绍了几种用于参数提取的地震反演方法,如传统Dix反演、叠后振幅反演、层析反演、叠前振幅反演等。     

南大洋普里兹湾基于234Th/238U不平衡法的POC输出通量研究

中国第22次南极科学考察(2005年11月至2006年3月)期间,测定了南极普里兹湾海域5个站位的从表层至150 m水深的不同层位水样中溶解态和颗粒态234Th,238U的放射性比活度以及颗粒有机碳.利用234Th/238U在上层水体中的不平衡,计算了南极普里兹湾上层水体中234Th的平均停留时间和输出通量.结果显示,随着纬度的增加,上层水体中颗粒态和溶解态234Th的平均停留时间总体趋向减小,并在中纬度站位出现了最低值,分别为1~8和29~48 d,而颗粒态和溶解态234Th的输出通量则在中纬度站位出现了最大值,分别为21~38和26~39 dpm/(m3·d).运用箱型清除模式,利用两种不同的方法估算了各水柱中从真光层底部输出的POC通量,平均值分别达到104.7 mmol/(m2·d)(E法)和120.6 mmol/(m2·d)(B法),表明南极普里兹湾夏季存在很高的新生产力,它将会对该海域碳的生物泵过程产生重要作用.